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Recent Episodes

When I met with Anthropic, they said their early bet on Google’s chips is finally paying off. ⚙️ Productivity’s up — and they’re starting to close the gap with Nvidia. For the latest info, be sure to subscribe to our newsletter: https://pitchthepm.beehiiv.com/ #PTPM #chipusage #AI #finance #GOOG #NVDA
AI model war just became a chip war...#PTPM #chipusage #AI #finance #GOOG #NVDA
Anthropic just settled a $1.5B copyright case for training Claude on 7 million pirated books. They literally saved the texts to a central library to teach the model how to reason and write. The question isn’t whether copyright law works— it’s whether it still matters when AI learns from everything. For more information like this, subscribe to our newsletter: https://pitchthepm.com/ #AI #Anthropic #Claude #Copyright #GenerativeAI #ArtificialIntelligence #TechNews #MachineLearning #PitchThePM
Is copyright dead? #AI #Anthropic #Claude #Copyright #GenerativeAI #ArtificialIntelligence
In this conversation, Doug sits down with Sinan Xin, managing partner at Amber Road, for a discussion of the “lost art” of international investing and a deep dive on Nebius ($NBIS) — a misunderstood name in the global AI infrastructure ecosystem. Sinan has followed the company since its spinout from Yandex and built a position around $25 post-relisting earlier this year after it returned to its offer price. Here he explains why Nebius now represents 10% of his fund. Together, they unpack the company’s origins inside “Russia’s Google,” its transformation into a neutral global provider of AI compute and data infrastructure, and the underappreciated value of its 28% stake in ClickHouse. The discussion covers how Nebius differentiates itself from peers like CoreWeave, what investors are missing about its payback economics, and why Sinan believes the market is overlooking a potential $200 stock hiding in plain sight. The Variant View What ACTION do I want the portfolio manager to take? Maintain a core long position in Nebius (NBIS). Continue to size it as a top-three holding given its asymmetric setup, global customer roster, and accelerating AI infrastructure growth. Do I UNDERSTAND this business? Yes. Nebius operates an AI infrastructure-as-a-service platform spun out from Yandex. It builds and rents compute, storage, and networking capacity (similar to AWS or CoreWeave) and owns a 28% stake in ClickHouse — a rapidly growing open-source database company. Customers include Tesla, Anthropic, ByteDance, MercadoLibre, and Microsoft. I’ve analyzed similar models across AWS, Snowflake, and Databricks and understand both the economics and technology. Is the stock available at a REASONABLE price today? Yes. At ~$125–130, the stock trades at roughly 15x implied earnings power on invested capital — discounting a 10% ROIC versus management’s 25–40% long-term target. My base case assumes a four-year payback on current deployed capital, which supports a ~$200/share valuation with ~30% downside to $85. No premium is embedded for platform optionality or future capital deployment. Why is this stock MIS-PRICED? Investors see “Russian risk” and dismiss it without understanding that the company is now headquartered and staffed primarily in Western Europe and Israel. There is also skepticism around the economics of AI infrastructure — investors assume GPU depreciation will compress returns. In my view, the market is missing: The global neutrality advantage (can serve U.S., EU, and emerging-market customers) The value of its ClickHouse stake, which could be worth the entire current EV The embedded software margin expansion as it moves up the stack. What is the VARIANT VIEW vs the Street? The Street views Nebius as another capital-intensive GPU host My view: it’s a technology company — not a “real-estate” or leasing business. Its heritage is software, and it is positioned to monetize higher-margin analytics and database products (ClickHouse, ML ops, AI APIs). Where peers like CoreWeave are financiers, Nebius is a builder. This distinction matters: long-term ROIC will resemble AWS, not colocation peers. What is the EVIDENCE? Signed global contracts with Microsoft, Anthropic, and Tesla ClickHouse stake recently valued near $6B in its last round; next raise likely over $20B Added U.S.-based executives to scale global go-to-market Reported 40%+ utilization growth with payback trending toward 3 years Management team and 1,300 engineers came directly from Yandex — a proven, world-class technical base What are the CATALYSTS for the Street to realize the view? Next ClickHouse fundraising (valuation re-mark and potential partial monetization) Additional hyperscaler or enterprise partnerships Index inclusion and rising institutional ownership Disclosure of improving ROIC and payback metrics Broader recognition that Nebius is an AI software platform, not just an infrastructure lessor What is it WORTH if the bet is right? Base case: $200/share (~60% upside) Bull case: $220–250/share if ClickHouse valuation steps up and incremental capacity yields 25%+ ROIC This assumes no multiple expansion — just normalized returns on deployed capital What is the OTHER SIDE of the bet? Pricing compression as supply normalizes and GPU costs fall faster than expected Political or regulatory backlash related to the company’s Russian origins Execution risk: delays in deploying new capacity or converting backlog Overestimation of ClickHouse’s market share or profitability Is MANAGEMENT aligned with Ownership? Yes. Founder and early engineers retain significant equity exposure. Management compensation is equity-based and directly tied to performance. The company’s culture is that of technologists and builders — not financial engineers — with deep insider ownership and long-term orientation. Subscribe to our newsletter for research updates and high-conviction episodes from top PMs & Analysts: https://pitchthepm.beehiiv.com/subscribe
EP.017: Time to take profits in NBIS or is it the next AWS?
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About Pitch The PM

Pitch The PM is the Professional Investor’s Podcast that provides a deep-dive into a stock’s investment case using the Variant View Investment Checklist. It is an open exploration of the research process in real time using high-conviction ideas from top PM’s and Analysts. Join the journey as Doug fills out his Buffett advised, 20-slot lifetime punch card. We learn and laugh together.

The Variant View Investment Checklist is the process that combines:
  1. A decade of market neutral equity investing at Citadel & Millennium.
  2. Studying the great investors like Buffett, Munger, Lynch & Greenblatt.
  3. The latest AI tools to improve idea velocity, accuracy and conviction.
Doug Garber, Pitch The PM Host

About the Host

Doug Garber
Chief Investment Officer & Director of Research

Doug Garber is the host of Pitch The PM and a former senior portfolio manager at Millennium and analyst at Citadel. He was trained at Citadel by a former SAC/Point72 analyst who had worked directly with Steve Cohen before becoming a Citadel portfolio manager.

 

During his time at Citadel’s Surveyor Capital, Doug was ranked among the top five analysts and was the only one to receive that distinction twice, leading to his selection for PM incubation. On the Millennium platform, Doug founded Katahdin Capital where he built a multi-sector, multi-strategy business by recruiting and developing top talent across adjacent verticals.

 

Before his buy-side career, Doug worked in sell-side equity research, where he honed his modeling and primary research skills. He is currently the chief investment officer at the Westport Alpha Group and holds a BSM and Master of Finance from Tulane University.

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The Team

Spencer Gantsoudes, CFA
Managing Director

Stride Capital
Morgan Stanley
Harvard University

Daniel Vogelzang
Head of Partners and Marketing

Brand & Strategy Consultant
Skidmore College

Alexis Sabo
Content Marketing associate

Loyola Marymount University

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Value Investor, Europe

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